OliveOdds

About us

What Is OliveOdds?

OliveOdds is a sports-analytics app that uses statistical models to estimate outcome probabilities for professional football (soccer), NBA basketball and MLB baseball matches. It compares those probabilities with bookmaker-implied odds to surface situations where the market may be mispricing a result.

OliveOdds also includes a personal bet-tracking journal, so you can log, organise, and review your own betting activity in one place.

Markets

• Football: match result (1X2), Over/Under 2.5 goals, and Value Line
• NBA: moneyline, handicap (spread), and totals
• MLB: moneyline, run line, and totals

Further sports may be added over time.

How It Works

1. Match data for upcoming fixtures is gathered and fed into our statistical models.
2. The models output a probability estimate for each outcome of a match, based on historical performance and other relevant factors.
3. These probabilities are compared with the best available bookmaker odds to calculate an edge: the difference between our model’s probability and the market’s implied probability.
4. A positive edge means the model thinks the market is undervaluing an outcome. Paid plans show these edges with a “Value” badge.
5. An optional Kelly stake suggestion helps you think about sizing, scaled conservatively to reduce variance.

Nothing in this process constitutes advice. These are mathematical outputs of a model, not guarantees.

Value Line

Value Line is a separate football market with no prediction model behind it. We compare every bookmaker’s price for the away team with Pinnacle’s de-vigged (“fair”) price. When a bookmaker offers clearly better odds than that fair price, you get a pick.

• Bet as soon as you see it. These prices don’t last: the odds when a pick appears are usually the best you’ll get, and about a third of picks lose their value within a day.
• Check the minimum odds. Every pick shows Min odds. If your bookmaker offers the away team at or above that, the pick still has value, at any bookmaker. Below it, skip it.
• Stake the same every time. The App suggests 1% of your betting bankroll per pick.
• Expect losing streaks. Typical odds are around 3.0, so you win about 4 in 10. Long runs of losses are normal.
• It’s new. Its long-term results are not proven yet.

Many picks are priced at bookmakers you may not be able to use; any bookmaker at or above Min odds is fine. Bookmakers may limit accounts that keep beating their prices, and in Germany some bookmakers pass the 5.3% betting tax on to customers, which can remove the value of a pick.

Access and Plans

Free access is available to everyone without registration. It shows predictions with limited detail and includes advertising.

Paid plans are sold through the App Store:

• Full Access: every sport and market, including Value Line, billed monthly or yearly, starting with a free trial.
• Single sport: one sport, billed monthly.
• Season Pass: a one-time payment covering one sport until the end of its season. It does not renew.

The football plan and the football Season Pass both include Value Line.

While any plan is active, the App shows no advertising. See the Terms & Conditions for billing, renewal, and cancellation.

Your Account

You don’t need an account to use OliveOdds or to buy a plan. Where available, subscribers can create an email account in the App to keep their plan and bet history across devices. Purchases can also be restored with Restore Purchases using the same Apple Account.

You can delete your account, or your data if you use the App without one, at any time in Settings → Account. See Account deletion.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

OliveOdds is NOT a betting tip service. We are not tipsters.

We want to be absolutely clear:

• We do not advise you to place any bet, on any match, ever.
• We do not guarantee any profit from using the App or following any figures it displays.
• Probabilities, edge percentages, Value Line picks, and stake suggestions are statistical outputs or price comparisons. They will sometimes be wrong, and past results do not guarantee future results.
• All decisions to place a wager, and all financial consequences of those decisions, are entirely your own.
• OliveOdds is a tool for analytically-minded sports fans. It is not a regulated financial product, gambling product, or advisory service.

Gambling carries significant financial risk. You can and may lose money. Please only bet what you can afford to lose.

Who Is OliveOdds For?

OliveOdds is designed for sports enthusiasts aged 18 or over who:

• Already engage in recreational sports betting and want a data-driven perspective on match probabilities.
• Are curious about the gap between a model’s probability estimate and what the market prices in.
• Want to keep a clean, organised record of their own bets in one place.

It is not for people looking for guaranteed tips, sure bets, or investment advice.

Responsible Gambling

If you choose to engage in sports betting, please do so responsibly:

• Set a budget and stick to it. Never chase losses.
• Take breaks. Betting should be entertainment, not a source of stress or financial pressure.
• Seek help if gambling is affecting your finances, relationships, or wellbeing.

Useful resources:

• 🇩🇪 Bundeszentrale für gesundheitliche Aufklärung (BZgA) — 0800 1 372700 (Germany, free, 24/7)
• 🇩🇪 Spielsucht Hilfe
• 🇬🇧 BeGambleAware — 0808 8020 133 (UK, free, 24/7)
• 🇬🇧 GamCare — 0808 8020 133 (UK, free, 24/7)
• 🌍 Gambling Therapy — international online support
• 🇪🇺 European Problem Gambling Helplines

Contact

For questions, feedback, or support:

Email: eros902002@googlemail.com

For privacy-related enquiries, including GDPR data-subject requests, please use the same email address and reference “Privacy Request” in the subject line.

OliveOdds is an independent app developed by Vedado UG (haftungsbeschränkt) with a passion for sports analytics. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any bookmaker, sports league, or gambling operator.

Summary of changes vs. version 2026-03: removed the outdated statement that Pro access is invitation-only and that there is no purchase process; updated the covered sports (football, NBA, MLB) and listed the markets; added Value Line, the paid plans, and account and deletion information; repaired malformed links in the list of help resources.